An important determinant of whether or not 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will ultimately cause a global pandemic is its ability to become established upon its importation to a new country. Cases of 2019-nCoV infection have so far been reported in 24 countries, yet little human-to-human transmission outside of China has occurred.
The key quantity governing whether or not 2019-nCoV can establish and generate a sustained outbreak on arrival in a new country is the reproduction number, R, which represents the average number of individuals that each infector will transmit the virus to. If R is greater than 1, sustained transmission can occur; if R is less than 1, then chains of transmission will simply stutter out.
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